The Trent Fall: Results, Market Expectations & Why the Stock Fell 8%

With Trent Ltd, a Tata Group company, falling over 8% with big brands like Westside and Zudio under its belly has raised quite a lot of eyeballs in the market as the expectations were positive. It is one of India’s most closely tracked retail stocks.and over the past few years, Trent became a market favourite due to rapid store expansion, strong brand execution through Westside and Zudio, and a premium growth narrative.
That very optimism, however, is also why the stock reacted sharply to its latest update.

Latest Performance

In its Q3 FY26 business update (Oct–Dec 2025), Trent reported:

• Standalone revenue: ~₹5,220 crore
• Year-on-year growth: ~17%
• Nine-month revenue: ~₹14,600+ crore, up ~18% YoY
• Store additions:
• Zudio: aggressive expansion (bulk of new stores)
• Westside: steady but selective additions
• Total store count: 1,100+ stores (India + overseas)

At a headline level, these numbers look strong and healthy. Double-digit growth in a discretionary consumption environment is no small achievement.

The Market Disappointment

The issue was not growth, but momentum and quality of growth.

1. Sequential growth slowed

While revenue grew 17% YoY, quarter-on-quarter growth was largely flat. Markets had priced in accelerating growth, not just stable growth.

2. Store productivity weakened

A key metric investors track in retail is revenue per square foot.
This metric declined, suggesting:

• New stores are taking longer to mature, or
• Consumer spending per store is softening

This raised concerns that growth is increasingly expansion-led rather than demand-led.

3. Expectations were very high

Trent entered this result season trading at premium valuations compared to peers.
When expectations are elevated, even a “good” result can feel insufficient.

Reason behind the Fall

On the trading day following the update, Trent’s stock fell around 8% intraday due to a combination of factors:

• Slowing growth momentum vs expectations
• Weak store productivity signals
• Valuation reset after a long rally
• Profit booking by institutional and short-term investors

In essence, the market moved from “everything is perfect” to “growth may be normalising” and that shift triggered sharp selling.

Analyst Preview

Despite the sharp fall, analysts are not uniformly bearish. Instead, opinions have become more nuanced.

Consensus Price Targets (12-month horizon)

• Average target: ~₹5,400–₹5,500
• Median target: ~₹5,250–₹5,350
• Lowest target: ~₹4,300–₹4,400
• Highest target: ~₹6,200–₹6,600

This wide range reflects divergent views on how quickly Trent can restore growth momentum.

Analyst Recommendation Mix

• Buy: ~45–50% of analysts
• Hold: ~25–30%
• Sell / cautious: ~20–25%

This tells us two things:

1. Long-term belief in the business remains intact
2. Near-term confidence has weakened

What Supports Higher Targets? (Bull Case)

Analysts with higher price targets point to:

• Strong execution track record
• Zudio’s scalable, mass-market appeal
• Structural growth in organised retail
• Tata Group backing and supply-chain strength

If store productivity stabilises and consumption improves, Trent could reclaim its premium multiple.

What Justifies Lower Targets? (Bear Case)

More cautious analysts highlight:

• Signs of demand normalisation
• Rising competition in value fashion
• Dependence on rapid store expansion
• Limited margin of safety at high valuations

These concerns explain why some targets are now close to current market prices.

The Bigger Picture: Correction or Trend Change?

The current fall appears to be a valuation and expectation reset, not a breakdown of the business model.

• Short term: Stock may remain volatile as the market digests slower momentum
• Medium term: Performance will hinge on same-store sales growth and margins
• Long term: Trent’s story remains tied to India’s organised retail expansion

Conclusion

Trent’s 8% fall is a reminder that great businesses can still disappoint markets when expectations run ahead of fundamentals.
The results were good, but not great enough to justify earlier optimism.

For investors, the key questions going forward are:

• Can store productivity recover?
• Can growth re-accelerate without aggressive discounting?

The answers to these will decide whether Trent regains its premium — or settles into a more measured valuation band.