The market trades lackluster as it lacks strength for corrective bounce.
Low RSI is reflecting strength of down trend, rather than oversold level.
As of 13:49 IST, 10 Sept
The market is no longer in mood to entertain oversold RSI, as down trend momentum gains strength, however the missing corrective bounce is leading to time based correction.
However sustaining above 24450 may trigger the corrective bounce to 23600, but overall weakness make the probability of reversal failure even.
An external trigger is require for market to bounce, in the absence sell on rise may continue and Nifty may find floor only near 23000-23100 for a temporary bounce.
IndiaVix is trading at 11.80, a move above 12.20 may increase volatility and risk in the market in coming week post BRICS.
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By closing below 24000 Nifty has entered into the larger picture with downside potential to 23000-22500. Read below…
01 The Larger Picture
Nifty completed 61.8% retracement the entire fall at 24752 during consolidation, and has now breached below the trend line support of 24000, resuming down trend to 23000-22500 level.
23600-23500 zone may act as 1st deterrence level post breakdown below 24000, on oversold readings and short-covering leading to re-testing of breakdown area near 24000 and BRICS positive optimism from BRICS summit.
BoJ Interest rate policy is the key event to watch out for which may act as trigger for rest of the Macro issues surfacing in the market dynamics, and a global sell-off scenario.
Tips disappears, Tradzo stands with you.
02 Key Macro Risks Ahead
- 1.Probability of US sanction based Tariffs on India & China near BRICS summit.
- 2.Crude & Refining capacity around the world translating inflation in downstream crude products, Ureas shortage leading food security concerns
- 3.Escalation of US-Iran war to entire West Asia
- 4.Escalation from Pakistan front as US proxy to sabotage BRICS agenda of new global monetary system bypassing the US Dollar.
- 5.US Debt & housing collapse due to unwinding of Yen carry trade.
- 6.AI Bubble burst - AI maybe becoming popular and very successful tools in the right hands but for majority its just new dopamine, with sky high valuations and no signs of profits.
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Tradzo Research
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