Market Update
Harsh Patel
Founder
Nifty trades at 24050, a 61.8% retracement level, will it bounce to 24200 or fall to 23950? Read Market Update here
Nifty Daily Chart
Support levels: 24050-23950 Resistance levels: 24300
Nifty has gradually declined from 24475 level to 24027 and has turned oversold near psychological support of 24000 & 61.8% retracement levels of 24050, a halt here may bring short covering up to 24200-24275 level due to oversold levels on the hourly chart.
However 24100 is immediate resistance level in intraday with Most active OI concentration today, failure to cross 24100 may result in range bound activity to 24100-24000 today, a breach above previous hour’s high may provide a contra buy opportunity with today’s low as the stoploss level.
The market sentiment remains sell on rise due to global geo-political concerns.
The Larger Picture
Consolidation range post the fall from the peak of 26341 to 22182, has now narrowed to the 24800-23900 range. At 24752 nifty has completed 61.8% retracement for the entire fall and now breaching below the trend-line support of 23900 with a confirmation below 23800 may signal resumption of down trend to 22500-22000 level in the coming month.
The market may see a tug of war between bulls & bears and may act as trend deciding factor between psychological support of 24000 and closing swing low of 23767.
2/4 Risks mentioned on Friday are now active threats, which may also lead 2 more risks for the global economy, Urea shortage and food shortages. While risk of AI Stocks & startups collapsing is increasing with de-dollarization and US hegemony, such things takes time to playout and may extend or develop differently so understanding the developments may help you drive through it.
Key Macro Risks Ahead
1. US sanction based Tariffs on India & China near BRICS summit.
2. Crude & Refining capacity around the world translating inflation in downstream crude products.
3. Escalation of US-Iran war to entire West Asia
4. Escalation from Pakistan front as US proxy to sabotage BRICS agenda of new global monetary system bypassing the US Dollar.
5. US Debt & housing collapse due to unwinding of Yen carry trade.
6. AI Bubble burst - AI maybe becoming popular and very successful tools in the right hands but for majority its just new dopamine, with sky high valuations and no signs of profits.
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Tradzo Research
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