Nifty achieves 1st target of 23000, 22500 next?
Nifty breaks 23,000, slides into 22,900-22,800 zone as flagged; 22,500 now in sight
As of 10:05 IST, 28 Sept
As flagged earlier a break below 23,000 brought the 22,900-22,800 zone into view. Nifty opened below 23,000 and slipped straight to 22,850 - the move is playing out in line with our larger-picture view towards 22,500.
The structure remains weak. As long as Nifty holds below 23,000, every pullback is likely to be sold into, and a sustained trade below 22,800 can open the door towards 22,500.
A bounce to 23000-23050 can be used for taking contra short position for the view of 22700-22500 and intraday target of 22800 which has proven to be a fight zone for bulls & bears.
Global cues remain unsupportive - Brent rebounded after the US rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, US bond yields stay elevated, and FIIs continue to sell. Yen, Crude and US bond yields remain the three macro variables to watch.
The Larger Picture
The market resumed down trend to 23000-22500 level after Nifty completed 61.8% retracement of the entire fall at 24752 during consolidation, and has achieved 1st target of 23000, as Nifty falls 22850.
The market has already absorbed the immediate Fed and BoJ rate decisions.
The more important variables from here are Yen, crude oil and global liquidity.
The Yen remaining weak is currently helping delay a larger carry-trade unwind. A sharp Yen appreciation, particularly towards the intervention zone, could change this equation quickly.
At the same time, falling crude would remove one of the biggest sources of inflationary pressure currently affecting emerging markets.
For India, this creates a two-sided setup:
01 Weak Yen + cooling Oil = supportive for equities
02 Strong Yen + elevated Oil = risk of renewed selling
Key Macro Risks Ahead
Tips disappears, Tradzo stands with you.
- 1.Probability of US sanction based Tariffs on India upto 500%.
- 2.Crude & Refining capacity around the world translating inflation in downstream crude products, Urea shortage leading food security concerns
- 3.Escalation of US-Iran war to entire West Asia
- 4.US Debt & housing collapse due to unwinding of Yen carry trade.
- 5.AI Bubble burst - AI maybe becoming popular and very successful tools in the right hands but for majority its just new dopamine, with sky high valuations and no signs of profits.
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Tradzo Research
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