Market Update
Harsh Patel
Founder
GiftNifty trading 180+ points up, indicates higher opening above 24100 as Trump's move to economic measures suggesting a bigger pause in military confrontation with Iran. Read more..
Nifty Daily Chart
Support levels: 24000 Resistance levels: 24500
Selling in the market comes to pause from psychological support of 24000 & 61.8% retracement levels of 24050 after a 12 day down streak. a opening above 24100 may bring short covering up to 24300-24500 level due to oversold levels on the hourly chart and economic moves towards Ian is seen as bigger pause on military confrontation which may take oil prices lower.
Unless 24000-23950 is breached market may remain range bound.
Noe what we need to see is to what leve the market can extend gain, is Indian market strong enought to surpass 24800-25000 hurdle?
However Buy on the Dip is the mantra that may work today, stay skeptical around 24300-24450 area.
The Larger Picture
Consolidation range post the fall from the peak of 26341 to 22182, has now narrowed to the 24800-23900 range. At 24752 nifty has completed 61.8% retracement for the entire fall and now breaching below the trend-line support of 23900 with a confirmation below 23800 may signal resumption of down trend to 22500-22000 level in the coming month.
The market may see a tug of war between bulls & bears and may act as trend deciding factor between psychological support of 24000 and closing swing low of 23767.
2/4 Risks mentioned on Friday are now active threats, which may also lead 2 more risks for the global economy, Urea shortage and food shortages. While risk of AI Stocks & startups collapsing is increasing with de-dollarisation and US hegemony, such things takes time to play out and may extend or develop differently so understanding the developments may help you drive through it.
Key Macro Risks Ahead
1. US sanction based Tariffs on India & China near BRICS summit.
2. Crude & Refining capacity around the world translating inflation in downstream crude products.
3. Escalation of US-Iran war to entire West Asia
4. Escalation from Pakistan front as US proxy to sabotage BRICS agenda of new global monetary system bypassing the US Dollar.
5. US Debt & housing collapse due to unwinding of Yen carry trade.
6. AI Bubble burst - AI maybe becoming popular and very successful tools in the right hands but for majority its just new dopamine, with sky high valuations and no signs of profits.
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Tradzo Research
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