The corrective bounce failed to rally above 24375 this week, opening doors to 24000.
The volatility is back in the market despite IndiaVix trading near 10, suggesting volatility in the market may extend in coming week.
As of 03:35 IST, 27 Aug
The Nifty failed to sustain gains and witnessed intensified selling in last 2 days, falling to 24090 from high of 24375, its now very close to trend line support of 24000. We mentioned on 26th Aug that while the structure looks positive market is missing the thrust factor in large caps and breakouts in stocks.
Below 24000 the trading range may expand to theoretical target and swing low of 23000, Midcap outperformance may take a U-turn in case Nifty sustains below 24000. onthe upperside resistance is seen at 24200-24300 levels.
Tradzo’s momentum indicator tells that market is divided with a positive bias after yesterday’s closing, but lacking thrust, how market and stocks react in 2nd half of the week may provide a better picture.
01 The Larger Picture
At 24752 nifty has completed 61.8% retracement for the entire fall and now breaching below the trend-line support of 24000 may resume down trend to 22500-22000 level in the coming month.
23600 may act as 1st deterrence level post breakdown below 24000, on oversold readings and short-covering leading to re-testing of breakdown area near 24000.
Tips disappears, Tradzo stands with you.
02 Key Macro Risks Ahead
- 1.US sanction based Tariffs on India & China near BRICS summit.
- 2.Crude & Refining capacity around the world translating inflation in downstream crude products, Ureas shortage leading food security concerns
- 3.Escalation of US-Iran war to entire West Asia
- 4.Escalation from Pakistan front as US proxy to sabotage BRICS agenda of new global monetary system bypassing the US Dollar.
- 5.US Debt & housing collapse due to unwinding of Yen carry trade.
- 6.AI Bubble burst - AI maybe becoming popular and very successful tools in the right hands but for majority its just new dopamine, with sky high valuations and no signs of profits.
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Tradzo Research
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