Nifty gave Relief Bounce, But Bears Still In Control

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However, the broader structure remains weak and any bounce towards 23,250 could face selling pressure.

The market is currently being driven by macro concerns rather than company-specific earnings. Elevated crude oil prices, US bond yields above 5%, a weakening rupee and uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve decision continue to weigh on sentiment.

What Happened Yesterday?

Nifty closed at 23,118.60, its lowest level in nearly five months after erasing strong opening gains. Broad-based selling was seen across financials, autos, realty and PSU stocks, while IT remained the only major pocket of strength.

Foreign investors continued to remain sellers, while domestic institutions absorbed part of the pressure.

Technical View

The trend remains bearish as Nifty continues to trade below its key short and medium-term moving averages.

As long as Nifty remains below the 23,400 zone, rallies are likely to be viewed as pullbacks rather than a trend reversal. A break below 23,000 could accelerate selling pressure to 22500 level.

Sectors To Watch

IT

IT remains the strongest sector in the market. Continued rupee weakness and improving sentiment around AI adoption are supporting technology stocks. HCLTech, Infosys and TCS continue to outperform the broader market.

Tata Group Stocks

The Tata Sons listing narrative remains a key stock-specific theme after recent developments around its Upper Layer NBFC status. Investor interest could continue in select Tata group companies.

Financials

Financials remain crucial for any meaningful market recovery. Watch HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI for signs of stability after recent weakness.

Key Triggers Today

• US Federal Reserve policy decision
• Crude oil movement near $108/barrel
• FII activity
• Rupee movement against the US Dollar
• Whether Nifty can sustain above 23,200

Tradzo View

Markets appear oversold after the recent correction and a relief bounce cannot be ruled out. However, the broader trend remains weak and traders should avoid confusing a bounce with a reversal.

For today, the key level remains 23,250 which didn’t sustain and Nifty fell below 23,200 bringing sellers back into the market and keep pressure on the indices.

23000-22900 are on the cards technically, RSI in trending environment like such is reflection of strength of bearish trend and not oversold levels on daily chart.

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By closing below 24000 Nifty has entered into the larger picture with downside potential to 23000-22500. Read below…

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Nifty completed 61.8% retracement the entire fall at 24752 during consolidation, and has now breached below the trend line support of 24000, resuming down trend to 23000-22500 level.

23600-23500 zone may act as 1st deterrence level post breakdown below 24000, on oversold readings and short-covering leading to re-testing of breakdown area near 24000 and BRICS positive optimism from BRICS summit.

BoJ Interest rate policy is the key event to watch out for which may act as trigger for rest of the Macro issues surfacing in the market dynamics, and a global sell-off scenario.

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